America's new president -- Barack Obama -- will face more and more international problems and crises, according to law enforcement officials.

The Federal Bureau of Investigation forecasts that sub-national and non-governmental entities will play an increasing role in world affairs for years to come, presenting new “asymmetric” threats to the United States, according to a report submitted to the National Association of Chiefs of Police and other law enforcement and security organizations.

Although the United States will continue to occupy a position of economic and political leadership -- and although other governments will also continue to be important actors on the world stage -- terrorist groups, criminal enterprises, and other non-state actors will assume an increasing role in international affairs. Nation states and their governments will exercise decreasing control over the flow of information, resources, technology, services, and people.

Globalization and the trend of an increasingly networked world economy will become more pronounced within the next five years. The global economy will stabilize some regions, but widening economic divides are likely to make areas, groups, and nations that are left behind breeding grounds for unrest, violence, and terrorism. As corporate, financial, and nationality definitions and structures become more complex and global, the distinction between foreign and domestic entities will increasingly blur. This will lead to further globalization and networking of criminal elements, directly threatening the security of the United States.

Most experts believe that technological innovation will have the most profound impact on the collective ability of the federal, state, and local governments to protect the United States. Advances in information technology, as well as other scientific and technical areas, have created the most significant global transformation since the Industrial Revolution. These advances allow terrorists, disaffected states, weapons proliferators, criminal enterprises, drug traffickers, and other threat enterprises easier and cheaper access to weapons technology.

Technological advances will also provide terrorists and others with the potential to stay ahead of law enforcement countermeasures. For example, it will be easier and cheaper for small groups or individuals to acquire designer chemical or biological warfare agents, and correspondingly more difficult for forensic experts to trace an agent to a specific country, company, or group.

In the 21st Century, with the ready availability of international travel and telecommunications, neither crime nor terrorism confines itself territorially. Nor do criminals or terrorists restrict themselves, in conformance with the structure of our laws, wholly to one bad act or the other. Instead, they enter into alliances of opportunity as they arise; terrorists commit crimes and, for the right price or reason, criminals assist terrorists. Today's threats cross geographic and political boundaries with impunity; and do not fall solely into a single category of our law.

To meet these threats, we need an even more tightly integrated intelligence cycle. We must have extraordinary receptors for changes in threats and the ability to make immediate corrections in our priorities and focus to address those changes. And, we must recognize that alliances with others in law enforcement, at home and abroad, are absolutely essential.

Terrorism is the most significant threat to our national security. In the international terrorism arena, over the next five years, we believe the number of state-sponsored terrorist organizations will continue to decline, but privately sponsored terrorist groups will increase in number. However, the terrorist groups will increasingly cooperate with one another to achieve desired ends against common enemies. These alliances will be of limited duration, but such “loose associations” will challenge our ability to identify specific threats. Al-Qaeda and its affiliates will remain the most significant threat over the next five years.

The global Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) threat to the United States and its interests is expected to increase significantly in the near term. We expect terrorists to exploit criminal organizations to develop and procure WMD capabilities. Globalization will make it easier to transfer both WMD materiel and expertise throughout the world. The basic science and technologies necessary to produce WMD will be more easily understood. Similarly, raw materials will be more available and easier to obtain.

Violence by domestic terrorists will continue to present a threat to the United States over the next five years. The number of traditional left wing terrorist groups, typically advocating the overthrow of the US Government because of the perceived growth of capitalism and imperialism, have diminished in recent years. However, new groups have emerged that may pose an increasing threat. Right wing extremists, espousing antigovernment or racist sentiment, will pose a threat because of their continuing collection of weapons and explosives coupled with their propensity for violence.

The most significant domestic terrorism threat over the next five years will be the lone actor, or “lone wolf” terrorist. They typically draw ideological inspiration from formal terrorist organizations, but operate on the fringes of those movements. Despite their ad hoc nature and generally limited resources, they can mount high-profile, extremely destructive attacks, and their operational planning is often difficult to detect.

The threat from countries which consider the United States their primary intelligence target, adversary or threat either will continue at present levels or likely increase. The most desirable US targets will be political and military plans and intentions; technology; and economic institutions, both governmental and non-governmental. Foreign intelligence services increasingly will target and recruit US travelers abroad and will use nonofficial collection platforms, including increasing numbers of students, visitors, delegations, and emigres within the United States. Foreign intelligence activities are likely to be increasingly characterized by the use of sophisticated and secure communication technology to handle recruited agents and to be more likely than in the past to occur almost anywhere in the United States.

The Castorena Family Organization is a large-scale criminal organization with more than 100 key members who oversee cells of 10 to 20 individuals in cities across the United States, according to public court documents filed by the US government in Colorado and in other judicial districts around the country.

Several of the senior leaders of the organization are believed to be based in Mexico, although they enter the US occasionally to oversee the operations of lieutenants of the crime family.

The organization is alleged to be involved in the manufacture and distribution of high-quality counterfeit identity documents, including social security cards, birth certificates, marriage certificates, US and Mexican driver licenses, Matricula Consular ID cards, resident alien cards, work authorization documents, proof of vehicle insurance cards, temporary vehicle registration documents, and utility bills (many states require driver license applicants to show utility bills as proof of residence).

Court documents also indicate that the CFO started out in Los Angeles in the late 1980s, primarily manufacturing and selling counterfeit alien registration and social security cards. The organization soon expanded its counterfeit document operations to other cities across the United States, including New York City, Chicago, Las Vegas, Denver, Atlanta, Albuquerque, and other cities.

Over the past decade, the CFO has been managed by six Castorena-Ibarra siblings: Pedro, Alfonso, Jose, Maria, Francisco Javier, and Raquel. During the last several years, three of these siblings, Pedro, Maria and Francisco Javier, have maintained direct involvement in the counterfeiting operations of the CFO in Denver and elsewhere. In recent years, several of these siblings have been arrested and prosecuted in the United States. Others have fled to Mexico to avoid US prosecution.

The CFO has been the target of federal investigations in Los Angeles, New York, Chicago, Atlanta, Miami, Dallas, San Antonio, Las Vegas, Albuquerque, Denver, Lincoln, NE, and Des Moines, IA. 

For example, Immigration and Customs Enforcement investigations of the CFO in Los Angeles in the late 1990s resulted in the seizure of millions of counterfeit documents with an estimated street value of $20 million.

The documents were linked to more than 400 investigations and seizures in more than 50 cities in 33 states. The American Express Corporation attributed more than $2 million in losses to counterfeit identification documents that were traced to the CFO just in Los Angeles.

In Denver, ICE investigations into the CFO have resulted in the criminal prosecution of more than 50 individuals. Dozens of additional members of the CFO in Denver have been arrested and deported to Mexico, Colombia, and El Salvador. ICE agents in Denver have also been responsible for the seizure of at least 20 computerized laboratories affiliated with the CFO and used to manufacture high-quality counterfeit identity documents. Agents have also seized 21 computers, 21 silk screen printing templates used to produce counterfeit documents, and nine handguns.

Court documents indicate that CFO cells in various US cities are exceptionally well organized. CFO cell leaders typically keep schedules with the names of each counterfeit document vendor and the times they are to report to a designated area to sell fake documents. The local cell leaders also record the number and type of false documents sold by vendors during their shifts, as well the funds collected for each transaction.

The vendors are allowed to keep a portion of the proceeds, with the remainder passed to the local cell leader. Cell leaders, in turn, pass on a portion of the proceeds to the senior leaders of the CFO. Senior CFO leaders charge rentor franchise fee of as much as $15,000 per month for cell leaders to operate in a particular US city. These funds and other proceeds of counterfeit document sales are funneled to Mexico and other locations for those overseeing the CFO.

The organization moves its funds through three primary methods. Often, funds are wire transferred via money transmitter businesses. In other cases, bulk cash and checks are moved through express parcel services. In addition, the organization often employs couriers who physically transport US currency across US borders and between US cities.

Sources: US Department of Justice, Immigration and Customs Enforcement, Department of Homeland Security, Denver, CO Police Department, National Association of Chiefs of Police